Parlay/Accumulator
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Parlay Analysis
Probability Analysis
0.0%Breakdown by Leg
| Leg | Odds | Implied % | Fair % |
|---|
How the Parlay Calculator Works
This calculator uses basic probability mathematics to determine your potential parlay payout. A parlay (called an accumulator in the UK) combines multiple individual bets into one wager. All selections must win for the parlay to pay out.
The core formula for calculating parlay odds is simple multiplication:
Where each odds value is converted to decimal format first. For example, three bets at 2.00 odds each:
To calculate your potential payout:
The probability of winning a parlay is where things get interesting. If each individual bet has a 50% chance (2.00 decimal odds), the probability of winning a 3-leg parlay is:
Understanding Odds Formats
Different regions use different odds formats. This calculator handles all three major formats:
The calculator automatically converts between formats for accurate calculations. This is crucial because mixing formats incorrectly is a common mistake that leads to wrong payout estimates.
Here’s the conversion formula from American to Decimal odds:
For example, +150 becomes (150/100) + 1 = 2.50. -200 becomes (100/200) + 1 = 1.50.
Table of Common Parlay Scenarios
Use this table to quickly estimate payouts for common parlay combinations:
| Number of Legs | Each Leg Odds | Total Odds | $100 Stake Payout | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 legs | 2.00 each | 4.00 | $400 | 25% |
| 3 legs | 2.00 each | 8.00 | $800 | 12.5% |
| 4 legs | 2.00 each | 16.00 | $1,600 | 6.25% |
| 3 legs | 1.50 each | 3.38 | $338 | 29.6% |
| 5 legs | 1.80 each | 18.90 | $1,890 | 5.3% |
Notice the exponential growth in odds but exponential decline in probability. This is the fundamental trade-off of parlay betting.
The House Edge in Parlays
Bookmakers love parlays for one reason: the house edge compounds with each additional leg. Here’s how it works:
If a single bet has a 5% house edge (typical for sports betting), the fair odds for a 50% probability event would be 2.00. Bookmakers might offer 1.91 instead.
For a 2-leg parlay with each leg at 1.91 odds:
The house edge nearly doubles from 5% per leg to 8.75% for the parlay. For a 3-leg parlay:
This compounding edge is why experienced bettors are cautious with large parlays. The more legs you add, the greater the mathematical advantage for the bookmaker.
Smart Parlay Strategy
Successful parlay betting requires more than just picking winners. Here are proven strategies:
The Two-Leg Sweet Spot
Two-leg parlays offer the best balance of risk and reward. The house edge is manageable, and you only need two correct picks. Look for correlated bets (like a team winning and over total points) to increase your edge.
Round Robin Strategy
Instead of one large parlay, create multiple smaller parlays from your selections. With 4 picks, you could make all possible 2-leg parlays (6 total). This increases your chance of winning something while still allowing big payouts.
Bankroll Management
Parlays should be a small percentage of your betting portfolio. A common approach:
- 70% of bankroll on single bets
- 20% on 2-leg parlays
- 10% on 3+ leg parlays
Finding Value
Only include legs where you believe the true probability is higher than the implied probability from the odds. For example, if you think a team has a 60% chance (fair odds 1.67) but bookmakers offer 1.80, that’s value worth including.
Common Parlay Mistakes to Avoid
These errors cost parlay bettors money every day:
The biggest mistake? Treating parlays as a primary betting strategy rather than occasional high-risk, high-reward supplements to single bets.
Regional Differences: Parlays vs Accumulators
Different terms, same concept, but with regional nuances:
United States & Canada: Parlays
Typically limited to point spreads, moneylines, and totals. Some books offer “teaser” parlays where you adjust point spreads in your favor for reduced odds. Progressive parlays (lose one leg, reduce payout but don’t lose everything) are becoming popular.
United Kingdom & Ireland: Accumulators
Often called “accas.” More flexibility in bet types, including correct score, first goalscorer, and other specials. “Each-way” accumulators (win and place parts) are common in horse racing.
Australia: Multi Bets
Similar to accumulators but with unique “same game multi” options where you combine bets from the same event. Australian books often offer parlay insurance (stake back if one leg loses).
Regardless of terminology, the mathematics remain the same. What changes are the available bet types and promotional offers from bookmakers.
When Do Parlays Make Sense?
Parlays can be smart bets in specific situations:
- Small bankroll, big dreams: If you can only afford $10 bets, a parlay turns that into a potentially meaningful payout
- Strong opinions on multiple games: When you genuinely believe several underdogs will cover or several totals will go over/under
- Correlated events: Like a team winning and their star player scoring, where outcomes influence each other
- Promotional boosts: When bookmakers offer enhanced parlay odds or parlay insurance
- Entertainment value: As low-stakes fun bets to make watching multiple games more exciting
Parlays don’t make sense when:
- You’re adding legs just to increase odds
- You haven’t analyzed each leg independently
- The combined house edge exceeds your estimated edge
- You’re betting money you can’t afford to lose
- You’re chasing previous losses
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s the difference between a parlay and a round robin?
A parlay combines all selections into one bet. A round robin creates multiple smaller parlays from your selections. With 3 picks (A, B, C), a round robin would make three 2-leg parlays: A+B, A+C, B+C. More expensive but higher chance of winning something.
Can I cash out a parlay early?
Most modern sportsbooks offer cash-out options on parlays. The offer is usually less than the potential payout but more than your stake if some legs have already won. Cash-out value depends on remaining legs’ likelihood.
What happens if a leg pushes (ties)?
That leg is removed from the parlay, and the odds are recalculated with the remaining legs. A 3-leg parlay with one push becomes a 2-leg parlay. Your stake remains the same.
Are same-game parlays good value?
Usually not. Bookmakers know correlations within games and adjust odds accordingly. Same-game parlays often have higher house edges than cross-game parlays. However, if you spot mispriced correlations, they can be valuable.
What’s the largest parlay ever won?
The recorded largest parlay win was $1.2 million from a $5 bet on a 15-leg parlay in 2019. These are extreme outliers. For context, the chance of winning a 15-leg parlay with even-money bets is 0.003%.