Quick Guide: Use the Implied Probability Calculator

The Implied Probability Calculator converts any odds format into a simple percentage, showing the bookmaker’s expectation of a win. This is your breakeven point. ng; the calculator handles it all.

Step 1: Pick Your Odds Format

• Action: Look at the three buttons: Decimal, American, and Fractional.
• Why it Matters: You must tell the calculator what type of odds you are entering. Decimal is the default (e.g., 2.50). Click the one that matches the odds you want to check.
• This is like choosing Celsius or Fahrenheit before typing in the temperature. Pick the wrong one, and the result will be useless.

Step 2: Enter the Odds

• Action: Type the odds value into the “Enter Odds” text box.
• Examples:
  • If you chose Decimal, enter 2.50.
  • If you chose American, enter +150 (for underdogs) or -200 (for favorites).
  • If you chose Fractional, enter 3/2.
• Tip: The placeholder text changes to guide your input based on the format you selected in Step 1.

Step 3: Analyze the Implied Probability

• Action: Click the “Calculate Probability” button. The “Results Section” appears below.
• Key Output: The “Bookmaker’s Implied Probability” shows the percentage. This is the minimum win rate you need to achieve just to break even on this wager over time.
  • Example: Odds of 2.50 yield an Implied Probability of 40.00%. You need to win four times out of ten to avoid losing money.

Step 4 (Optional): Check for a Value Bet

• Action: Enter your own estimated chance of winning (in percentage) into the “Your Estimated Probability” box.
• Input: If you think the event has a 55% chance of happening, enter 55.
• Result: The “Value Bet Analysis” section shows your Expected Value percentage.
  • Positive Expected Value (Green): Congratulations, you found a Value Bet! This means your winning estimate (55%) is higher than the bookmaker’s (40.00%). This bet is mathematically profitable long-term.
  • Negative Expected Value (Red): No value. The risk is not worth the potential reward based on your own estimation.