Ever wonder if a bet is actually worth it or if you’re just gambling based on feelings? This calculator literally tells you if you’ll make money long-term or if you’re wasting your time.

What It Does: Calculates whether a bet has positive or negative expected value. Positive EV means if you made this bet 100 times, you’d be in profit. Negative EV means you’d be in loss. It’s the difference between investing and donating to bookies.

Why This Changes Everything: Because most bets are negative EV. Yes, even the ones that win sometimes. The bookie’s odds are designed to give them an edge. This calculator shows you when YOU have the edge instead. It’s how professionals pick their spots.

How to Use It:

Enter your stake
Enter the bookmaker’s odds
Enter YOUR honest assessment of the true win probability
The calculator tells you if it’s +EV or -EV and by how much

Expected Value Calculator

📈 Expected Value (EV) Calculator

Find out if a bet is mathematically profitable

🎓 What is EV? Expected Value shows the average amount you’ll win or lose per bet over the long run. Positive EV = good bet. Negative EV = bad bet.

Your Stake (₦)

Odds

The odds offered by the bookie

Keep Reading: Arbitrage Calculator

True Win Probability (%)

Your honest assessment of the actual chance of winning

Expected Value Per Bet

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Your Stake: –

Potential Win: –

Win Probability: –

Implied Odds Probability: –

Your Edge: –

EV as % of Stake: –

💰 Long-term projection: –

The Critical Question: The true win probability is everything. This is where your research matters. The bookie says a team has 40% chance (shown as 2.50 odds). But you did your homework: key player returning from injury, home advantage, opponent’s terrible away record. You genuinely believe it’s 55% chance. That’s +EV.

Real Example: Stake: ₦5,000. Bookie odds: 2.50 (implies 40% chance). Your assessment: 50% chance. Calculator shows: +EV of ₦1,250. That means theoretically, if you could make this exact bet 100 times, you’d profit ₦125,000 total. Even if you lose today, you made the right bet.

The Hard Truth: Most bets will show negative EV. That’s okay. That’s why you don’t bet them. This calculator is basically saying “skip this” 80% of the time. And that’s perfect. You’re not here to bet on everything. You’re here to bet on the FEW spots where you have a real edge.

Long-Term Mindset: The calculator shows you a long-term projection. If it says “bet this 100 times and lose ₦50,000,” and you still bet it, that’s not gambling, that’s volunteering your money. Professional bettors ONLY take +EV bets. That’s literally the secret.

When to Ignore This: If you’re betting for fun, with money you can afford to lose, for entertainment. Then EV doesn’t matter, enjoy yourself. But if you’re trying to make money, if you’re taking this seriously, if you’re calling it “investing,” then EV is your religion.