Australia State Nomination Odds Tool
See which states are likely to nominate your occupation for a 190 or 491 visa, and whether your points score is in range. Based on 2025-26 allocation data and observed invitation rounds.
Select the closest match. Specific ANZSCO codes within a category may vary. This tool uses occupation groups, not individual codes.
Enter your score from the points test before adding the state nomination bonus (+5 for 190, +15 for 491). If you are unsure, use our Australia Points Calculator first.
Most states give priority to onshore applicants with local employment. Some states accept offshore, but competition is higher.
Current Australian employment in your skilled occupation is one of the strongest selection signals for state nomination.
Your nomination outlook will appear here
Complete the fields on the left to see a state-by-state assessment based on 2025-26 allocation data.
Common Mistakes When Applying for State Nomination
How the State Nomination Odds Tool Works
This tool scores your profile against the key factors that determine state nomination competitiveness in Australia: your occupation group, your base SkillSelect points score, whether you are onshore or offshore, and whether you currently have skilled employment in Australia. It then maps your profile against the 2025-26 state allocation data and observed invitation round behaviour across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania, ACT, and the Northern Territory.
The result is not a guaranteed probability. State nomination is not a transparent process, and most states do not publish exact cutoff scores by occupation. What this tool gives you is a structured assessment of how your profile aligns with each state’s known priorities and allocation size, expressed as a qualitative outlook: strong, moderate, limited, or closed/not accepting.
Occupation Priority Score = f(occupation demand in state, state’s sector focus)
Points Sufficiency Score = f(base points vs observed invitation cutoff for that occupation)
Location Bonus = onshore with AU employment adds +2 tiers; offshore without AU employment reduces competitiveness
Final Outlook = combined weighted signal across these three factors
2025-26 State Allocation Summary
On 4 November 2025, the Australian Government set the total number of state and territory nomination allocations for the 2025-26 program year at 20,350. This is significantly below the 33,000 planning level, meaning the program is more competitive than the planning numbers suggest.
| State | 190 Places | 491 Places | Total | Status (March 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | 2,100 | 1,500 | 3,600 | Active (491 Pathways 1 and 3 closed) |
| VIC | High | 700 | Second highest | Active (rolling ROI, no fixed rounds) |
| QLD | 1,850 | 750 | 2,600 | Active (inviting onshore occupations) |
| WA | 2,000 | 1,400 | 3,400 | Active (~53% used, move quickly) |
| SA | 1,350 | 900 | 2,250 | Active (monthly rounds) |
| TAS | 1,200 | 650 | 1,850 | Active (weekly ROI cycle) |
| ACT | 800 | 800 | 1,600 | Active (Canberra Matrix system) |
| NT | ~400 | ~400 | ~800 | Portal closed, existing applications only |
Data based on official Home Affairs announcements and publicly reported invitation round data as at March 2026. Remaining allocations change frequently.
Occupation Demand by State: What the Data Shows
Healthcare (Nursing, Allied Health, Doctors)
Healthcare is in demand across all states. NSW’s priority sectors remain construction, renewable energy, health, digital/cyber, agriculture, and advanced manufacturing. For nurses specifically, invitation cutoffs tend to be lower than for ICT or engineering occupations in most states because the shortage is genuine and national. In WA, healthcare roles require 80 to 95 points based on 2026 data. In the ACT, healthcare workers are on the Critical Skills List and are consistently invited at lower Matrix scores than most other groups.
ICT and Software Engineering
ICT is high demand but also high competition. NSW and VIC attract large volumes of software engineers, which pushes cutoffs up. NSW likely points expectation is 90 or above for ICT and engineering. South Australia has been using the 491 as the more accessible route for many ICT professionals in recent rounds. Tasmania also accepts ICT roles but at lower effective points due to its smaller, less saturated applicant pool.
Construction Trades (Electricians, Plumbers, Carpenters)
Trades are in persistent shortage nationally. QLD is actively building for both the Big Build infrastructure pipeline and the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, which means sustained demand specifically for construction workers. WA’s mining, construction, and infrastructure sectors have critical shortages, and construction builds can bypass the contract requirement for the 190 in WA. Recent trends show 75 to 85 points for trades and essential services. Trades applicants in most states have lower effective cutoffs than ICT or management occupations.
Accounting
Accounting is one of the most competitive and oversupplied categories for state nomination. The ACT’s Matrix data shows accountants require among the highest scores, at 125 to 135 Matrix points. In NSW and VIC, accounting roles at standard 189 points scores rarely receive invitations in competitive rounds. Applicants in accounting are usually better served by the 491 regional pathway or by building their score significantly above 85 before lodging.
What Is the Difference Between the 190 and 491?
The 190 is a permanent visa. You get PR immediately when your visa is granted, with no regional obligation. The 491 is a 5-year provisional visa that requires you to live and work in a designated regional area of Australia. After 3 years of meeting income and residency requirements, you can apply for permanent residency through the 191 visa.
For many Nigerian applicants, the 491 is often the more accessible first step, particularly at lower points scores, because the +15 nomination bonus makes otherwise borderline profiles competitive. The trade-off is the regional living requirement. Not every Nigerian is willing or able to settle in regional Queensland or Tasmania, and that honest constraint should factor into your decision.
Realistic Scenarios
Scenario 1: Registered Nurse, onshore, 75 points
Adaeze is a nurse working in a Sydney hospital on a 482 visa. Her SkillSelect base score is 75 points. With a 190 nomination she would be at 80 effective points, and with 491 she would be at 90. Nursing is a priority occupation across most states. NSW, WA, SA, and Tasmania all offer realistic pathways. The 190 at 80 effective points is competitive for healthcare in WA and SA. The 491 at 90 effective points is competitive in most states for nursing. Her single biggest step is to verify her AHPRA registration, ensure her EOI is current, and submit ROIs to at least two states.
Scenario 2: Software Engineer, offshore, 70 points
Emeka is applying from Nigeria. He has a base score of 70 points. As an offshore applicant, most major states (NSW, VIC) are very competitive and will require higher effective scores. With 491 nomination he would be at 85 effective points, which is competitive for ICT in SA and QLD for offshore applicants. Tasmania also accepts offshore ICT applicants at lower effective scores. His priority should be either boosting his base score (ideally to 80+) through superior English or partner skills assessment before applying, or targeting SA or Tasmania for the 491.
Scenario 3: Electrician, onshore in Queensland, 80 points
Chidi is already working in Queensland on a 482 visa as an electrician. His base score is 80. As a trade worker with local employment in a high-demand construction state, he is in a strong position. QLD’s active Big Build pipeline means sustained trades demand. With the 190 (+5) he is at 85 effective points, and with 491 (+15) he is at 95. Both pathways are realistic in QLD, and WA is also a strong option given its construction shortage. Trades applicants in this position should have their documents ready and submit their ROI as soon as QLD opens the round for their occupation.
