H-1B Lottery Odds Predictor
FY2027 wage-weighted system • Estimate your selection chances instantly
A US master’s or PhD gives you two rounds in the lottery: regular cap first, then masters cap. Foreign degrees do not qualify.
FY2026 had 336,153 unique registrations. FY2027 may drop due to the new $100,000 filing fee for offshore applicants. Experts estimate 250k–420k range.
Common mistakes with the H-1B lottery
Frequently asked questions
How the H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator Works
The H-1B lottery is no longer a simple random draw. From the FY2027 cap season (registration in March 2026 onwards), USCIS uses a wage-weighted selection system. This calculator models your estimated probability of selection using the official DHS methodology.
Effective selection fraction (f) = Slots to fill / Total weighted entries in pool
Selection probability = 1 – (1 – f)^w
Where w = your wage level entries (1, 2, 3, or 4 based on Level I-IV)
Combined odds (masters cap) = 1 – ((1 – P_regular) × (1 – P_masters))
The key variable is your wage level relative to the DOL OEWS prevailing wage scale for your specific occupation and metro area. A Level IV position gets 4 entries into the pool. A Level I position gets 1 entry. Everything else being equal, a Level IV applicant has roughly 4 times the selection probability of a Level I applicant.
What the Four Wage Levels Actually Mean
The DOL’s wage level system is based on your offered salary compared to the prevailing wage for your occupation and location. The thresholds vary by job title and geography, but the structure is the same everywhere.
| Wage Level | Description | Lottery Entries | Est. Odds (FY2027) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level I | Entry-level, routine tasks, limited experience | 1 entry | ~15% |
| Level II | Some experience, performs standard duties | 2 entries | ~28% |
| Level III | Experienced, independent judgment, complex tasks | 3 entries | ~40% |
| Level IV | Fully competent, supervisory or expert level | 4 entries | ~52% |
Estimates based on DHS projections in the December 2025 final rule and FY2026 registration data. Actual odds depend on total FY2027 registration volume.
What Changed for FY2027 Compared to Previous Years
For anyone tracking this process, here is the progression of changes over the last few years.
FY2024 introduced the beneficiary-centric system, which stopped multiple employers from registering the same person multiple times to stack the odds. That reduced fraudulent gaming significantly. FY2025 and FY2026 kept the random selection but with cleaner data. FY2026 saw a selection rate of about 35%, up from 29% in FY2025.
FY2027 is the first year where your wage level directly determines your number of lottery entries. The December 29, 2025 final rule (effective February 27, 2026) implemented this change just in time for the March 2026 registration window.
The Masters Cap Advantage: How It Stacks With Wage Weighting
If you hold a US master’s degree or higher from an accredited US institution, you qualify for the advanced degree exemption. This means you get two rounds in the lottery, not one.
In round one, you compete in the regular 65,000-slot cap along with everyone else. If you are not selected there, you get a second chance in the masters cap, a separate 20,000-slot pool where only master’s cap eligible applicants compete. The wage weighting applies in both rounds.
Important: a master’s or PhD from a Nigerian university, UK university, or any non-US institution does not qualify. Only a degree from an accredited US institution of higher education counts. This is a strict rule that USCIS enforces.
Why Nigerians Target the H-1B Route to the US
The US has the largest Nigerian diaspora outside Africa. An estimated 400,000 to 600,000 Nigerians live in the United States, with concentrated populations in Texas, Maryland, New York, and Georgia. This creates strong pull factors: family networks, professional communities, and cultural familiarity.
The H-1B visa is the dominant route for skilled Nigerian professionals already in the US on F-1 student visas. After completing a degree, F-1 holders get 12 months of Optional Practical Training (OPT), with a 24-month STEM extension for qualifying fields. The clock on the H-1B lottery is therefore tied directly to the OPT window.
Outside the F-1 to H-1B pipeline, some Nigerians reach the US on L-1 intracompany transfer visas through multinational employers, O-1 extraordinary ability visas, or employment-based green card routes. The H-1B is still the most common first step for mid-career professionals.
Realistic Scenarios for Nigerian Applicants
Scenario 1: Software engineer on STEM OPT, Level II wage offer
Chidi graduated with a US master’s in computer science and is on a STEM OPT extension. His employer registers him at a Level II software engineer wage in Houston. He gets 2 entries in the regular cap and 2 entries in the masters cap. His combined selection odds at 310,000 registrations are approximately 42 to 50%. Better than even odds if both rounds play out, but not guaranteed.
Scenario 2: Nurse or healthcare professional on J-1 or H-1, Level III
Adaeze is a nurse practitioner working for a hospital system. Her offered wage qualifies as Level III for her metro area. She gets 3 entries in the regular cap. With a bachelor’s from a Nigerian university only, she has no masters cap access. Her odds at 310,000 registrations: approximately 38 to 43%. Solid odds, but no second-chance round.
Scenario 3: Entry-level analyst, bachelor’s only, Level I wage
Kola is a data analyst fresh from undergrad, being sponsored by a consulting firm at a Level I wage. He gets 1 entry. No US master’s degree. His single-round odds are approximately 14 to 16%. He would need to be selected in a field where only 1 in 6 or 7 applicants gets through. Not strong odds. He may want to explore L-1, O-1, or pursuing a US degree first.
Assumptions Used in This Calculator
- Regular cap: 65,000 slots (minus 6,800 set-asides for Chile and Singapore = 58,200 effective)
- Masters cap: 20,000 additional slots for US advanced degree holders
- USCIS overselects by roughly 40% to account for petition withdrawals and non-filings
- Wage level weighting: Level I = 1 entry, Level II = 2, Level III = 3, Level IV = 4
- Multiple registrations for same beneficiary: USCIS uses lowest wage level of all registrations
- Masters cap applicants enter regular cap first; those not selected enter masters cap pool
- FY2027 registration volume: 250,000 to 420,000 range (central estimate ~310,000)
- Probability model: 1 – (1-f)^w as described in DHS December 2025 final rule
- Petition approval rate after selection: approximately 97 to 98% per FY2025 USCIS data
Methodology
This calculator uses the probability model described by DHS in the December 29, 2025 Federal Register final rule (Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions). The formula calculates the per-ticket selection fraction based on available cap slots, expected registration volume, and weighted entries. Total expected entries are derived from FY2026 registration distribution data adjusted for the new $100,000 offshore filing fee effect.
Historical selection rates used for calibration: FY2024 at 24.8%, FY2025 at 29%, FY2026 at 35.3%. Registration volumes: FY2024 at 758,994, FY2025 at 470,342, FY2026 at 336,153 unique beneficiaries.
Disclaimer
© 2026 DeyWithMe — Relocation math for Nigerians. Not immigration advice.
